Despite renewed climate pledges and updated national commitments, the world is drifting further from its decarbonization goals, according to a recent report.

Global energy emissions are forecast to peak in 2032, four years later than previously projected, finds the report by BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, which highlights a growing pessimism around climate ambition, particularly among major economies.

Fossil fuels are predicted to remain the cornerstone of the global energy mix until 2034, with only a gradual slowdown largely driven by a decline in coal.

By 2034, global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions are projected to rise 3% to 38.1 billion tonnes, driven primarily by sustained growth in oil and gas use. Coal emissions are expected to decline modestly by 5%, but that progress, the report states, is far from sufficient to meet the Paris agreement’s 1.5 degree Celsius threshold.

In this shifting landscape, however, Asia is no longer just a major emitter, it is rapidly becoming the focal point for climate action and clean energy deployment. The region, long viewed as part of the emissions problem, may now hold the key to the solution.

Clean energy momentum

Mainland China is forecast to account for almost one-third of global energy emissions by 2034, with 11.4 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide output, more than twice that of the United States. Yet, China also represents the world’s most significant downside risk to global emissions, owing to the extraordinary pace of its clean energy buildout.

From wind to solar and battery storage, China is consistently exceeding its own renewable energy targets. It is already the world’s top supplier of non-hydro renewables and battery capacity.

While its coal reliance remains high, China’s deployment trajectory signals an earlier-than-expected emissions peak. For the first time, Beijing has formalized a target to reduce energy emissions by up to 10% below peak by 2035, an objective BMI believes will be met or exceeded.

India, Asia’s other emissions heavyweight, is set to account for 11% of global emissions by 2034. While clean energy deployment is accelerating, fossil fuel use, especially in transport and industry, remains robust.

Southeast Asia’s emerging economies, notably Indonesia and Vietnam, are also expediting their energy transition but continue to rely heavily on coal due to population growth, ongoing industrialization and protracted energy finance solutions.

The report also signals a broader geopolitical realignment in global climate leadership. The United States, once a driver of global climate diplomacy, has shifted priorities under the current administration. Domestic oil and gas production has surged back into favour, federal support for renewables has stalled, and US bilateral climate aid is shrinking. As Washington retreats, the leadership is moving south.

The Global South, led by Asia-Pacific nations, is fast becoming the engine of global clean energy momentum. For example, BMI notes that two-thirds of new non-hydro renewables capacity added this decade will come from Asia.

From battery exports to green hydrogen production, China, India and Southeast Asian economies are asserting their own climate leadership, one grounded in scale, technology and necessity.

However, inevitably challenges remain. Even with more ambitious Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris framework, 123 updated submissions fall short of what’s needed. Barriers to decarbonization, ranging from cost and policy uncertainty to technology gaps in hard-to-abate sectors, will continue to hinder this progress.