By now, it is obvious that the European Union must confront its lack of military might and economic competitiveness. US defence secretary Pete Hegseth has declared that America is no longer “primarily focused on Europe’s security”. Mario Draghi’s 2024 report on European competitiveness warned that the EU must foster innovation to maintain its industrial relevance. Clearly, relying on past alliances and inherited advantages is no longer a viable option for Europe.

Addressing these challenges will require building new alliances and developing new advantages – especially in quantum computing. While much has been said about AI’s ability to shift the balance of global power, the quieter quantum revolution promises to generate equally meaningful breakthroughs in industry, cybersecurity and defence strategy. And whereas the EU lags far behind China and the United States in AI and advanced semiconductors, it still has a chance to lead in quantum technologies. But the window is closing fast.

Quantum computing isn’t just a faster version of classical computing – it is an entirely new form of information processing. Instead of relying on binary code, quantum computers use qubits that can hold multiple states at once, allowing them to solve complex problems concurrently, rather than sequentially.

While these supercharged computers remain years away from maturity, owing to instability and high error rates, several other types of quantum technology are already in use. Quantum sensors, due to their remarkable precision, are reshaping military operations and nuclear deterrence. Communications backed by quantum cryptography are protecting against increasingly advanced and frequent cyberattacks on critical infrastructure and intellectual property. And quantum algorithms are driving gains in industrial logistics and military simulations.

Developing quantum capabilities would enable Europe to bolster its defences. Along Nato’s eastern flank, and particularly in Ukraine, such computing could power navigation systems that work even in GPS-denied environments, sensors that can detect stealth aircraft and submarines, and monitoring tools that expose hidden enemy activities. Recognizing quantum technologies’ potential for improving intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance, the US Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency ( Darpa ) has indicated a willingness to develop these technologies. Europe must not be caught flat-footed.

From a competitiveness standpoint, quantum tech could revitalize Europe’s ailing automotive sector, with advanced modelling accelerating battery innovation. Quantum computing could also increase the continent’s energy competitiveness, by stabilizing its renewable-heavy power grids, and boost its strong pharmaceutical sector, by supercharging drug discovery and improving early disease detection. These developments would also drive progress towards climate goals, reduce reliance on fossil fuel imports, and ease the burden on health-care systems.

Fortunately, Europe is entering the quantum race in a strong position. Its research institutions – including QuTech in the Netherlands and Forschungszentrum Jülich in Germany – are globally competitive. The continent trains more quantum engineers than any other, hosts nearly one-quarter of the world’s quantum-tech companies, and is a global leader in quantum sensing and communications.

The EU has also built a political consensus around the strategic importance of quantum technologies. The Quantum Flagship, the Commission’s €1 billion ( US$1.2 billion ) research and development initiative, has backed commercial ventures, such as Pasqal and IQM, both of which build quantum hardware.

The union has also allocated billions of euros to programmes such as the European Quantum Communication Infrastructure Initiative and the European High Performance Computing Joint Undertaking. When it comes to scaling up production of quantum hardware, Europe’s precision manufacturing base – from German machines to Dutch lithography – may prove advantageous.

But a familiar obstacle – the so-called “valley of death” between lab breakthroughs and market success – may negate these advantages. Europe’s quantum start-ups receive less private financing than their counterparts in the US, forcing many to relocate to North America and Asia in search of capital. Compared to America’s private investment- and defence-driven approach, or China’s state-backed strategy, the EU’s fragmented funding and governance landscape could be lethal, offsetting the Union’s myriad technical strengths.

To convert quantum tech’s potential into a strategic advantage, several principles should guide EU policy. First, when it comes to R&D, the bloc should focus on use cases that will enable it to achieve quick wins in legacy sectors such as pharmaceuticals, the automotive industry, and green energy. At the same time, a European version of DARPA should be established to fund high-risk, dual-use quantum technologies with immediate defence and cybersecurity applications.

Second, EU member states should establish protective safeguards – from export controls to investment-screening mechanisms and IP protection – for sensitive quantum research that is vulnerable to espionage or foreign acquisition. This may require the EU to form partnerships with other trusted democracies. Deeper quantum alliances could also allow the bloc to have a greater impact in global standard-setting, while reducing its dependence on supply chains in adversarial countries.

Most importantly, realizing Europe’s quantum ambition demands more than technical excellence; it requires political courage. For too long, Europe has watched from the sidelines as the US and China defined the rules of emerging tech. Quantum computing presents the continent with a rare chance to take the reins. But to seize it, European policymakers must embrace a culture of deliberate risk-taking. The outcome of the quantum tech race will ultimately come down to whether Europe still believes in its capacity to lead.

Soňa Muzikárová is a non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and a former economist at the European Central Bank, diplomat at the OECD and senior adviser to the deputy minister of foreign affairs of the Slovak Republic.

Copyright: Project Syndicate